Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? Odds
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | February 1, 2027 | 86% | -594 |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | February 1, 2027 | 4% | +2310 |
| Moderate Party (M) | February 1, 2027 | 14% | +641 |
| Centre Party (C) | February 1, 2027 | 51% | -102 |
| Left Party (V) | February 1, 2027 | 10% | +953 |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | February 1, 2027 | 13% | +669 |
| Green Party (MP) | February 1, 2027 | 66% | -190 |
| Liberals (L) | February 1, 2027 | 12% | +733 |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | February 1, 2027 | <1% | +16567 |
- Implied
- 85.6%
- American
- -594
- Decimal
- 1.17
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 86% — roughly -594 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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