Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms? Odds
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | November 3, 2026 | 96% | -2717 |
| Texas | November 3, 2026 | 98% | -5456 |
| North Carolina | November 3, 2026 | 96% | -2567 |
| Ohio | November 3, 2026 | 96% | -2173 |
| Utah | November 3, 2026 | 91% | -953 |
| Florida | November 3, 2026 | 99% | -7043 |
| Louisiana | November 3, 2026 | 93% | -1233 |
| Missouri | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2757 |
| Virginia | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2640 |
| Alabama | November 3, 2026 | 87% | -641 |
| South Carolina | November 3, 2026 | <1% | +66567 |
| Georgia | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2717 |
| Kansas | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2757 |
| New Jersey | November 3, 2026 | 5% | +2074 |
| Indiana | November 3, 2026 | 5% | +2122 |
| Washington | November 3, 2026 | 3% | +3025 |
| Nebraska | November 3, 2026 | 5% | +1900 |
| Illinois | November 3, 2026 | 2% | +4067 |
| Minnesota | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2173 |
| New York | November 3, 2026 | 3% | +3822 |
| Maryland | November 3, 2026 | 4% | +2253 |
| Wisconsin | November 3, 2026 | 3% | +3604 |
| Tennessee | November 3, 2026 | — | — |
| Mississippi | November 3, 2026 | — | — |
- Implied
- 90.5%
- American
- -953
- Decimal
- 1.10
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 91% — roughly -953 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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