Who will advance from the California Governor primary? Odds
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Probability over time
No price history yet
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Grasty | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ethan Agarwal | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Xavier Becerra | June 2, 2026 | >99% | — |
| Carolina Buhler | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ian Calderon | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Zoltan Istvan | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Thunder Parley | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Katie Porter | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Raji Rab | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Tom Steyer | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Eric Swalwell | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Tony Thurmond | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Betty Yee | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Dylan Colbert | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ché Ahn | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Chad Bianco | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Sophia Brink | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Sharifah Hardie | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Steve Hilton | June 2, 2026 | >99% | — |
| Brandon Jones | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Kyle Langford | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Daniel Mercuri | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Jimmy Parker | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| David Serpa | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Leo Zacky | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Javen Allen | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ryan Tillman | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| David Thelen | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Leonard Jackson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ramsey Robinson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Nicholas Thompson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Butch Ware | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Nicki Minaj | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Matt Mahan | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Elaine Culotti | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Polymarket traders currently price this at <1%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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