Who will advance from the California Governor primary? Odds
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Probability over time
No price history yet
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Grasty | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Xavier Becerra | June 2, 2026 | >99% | — |
| Ian Calderon | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Thunder Parley | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Raji Rab | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Eric Swalwell | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Dylan Colbert | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Chad Bianco | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Sharifah Hardie | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Brandon Jones | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Daniel Mercuri | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| David Serpa | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Javen Allen | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| David Thelen | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ramsey Robinson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Butch Ware | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ethan Agarwal | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Carolina Buhler | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Zoltan Istvan | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Katie Porter | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Tom Steyer | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Tony Thurmond | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Betty Yee | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ché Ahn | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Sophia Brink | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Steve Hilton | June 2, 2026 | >99% | — |
| Kyle Langford | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Jimmy Parker | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Leo Zacky | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Ryan Tillman | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Leonard Jackson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Nicholas Thompson | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Nicki Minaj | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Matt Mahan | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
| Elaine Culotti | June 2, 2026 | <1% | — |
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Polymarket traders currently price this at <1%. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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