GeoOdds

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Odds

$729K total volume$11K 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
14%implied chance
+0.5pp24h

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDecember 31, 202616%+545
Stephen A. SmithDecember 31, 202610%+900
Jon OssoffDecember 31, 202610%+953
Cory BookerDecember 31, 20266%+1462
Rahm EmanuelDecember 31, 202625%+308
John FettermanDecember 31, 202612%+733
Hillary ClintonDecember 31, 20265%+1983
LeBron JamesDecember 31, 20262%+4445
MrBeastDecember 31, 20262%+5028
Beto O’RourkeDecember 31, 202616%+543
Marco RubioDecember 31, 202613%+700
Ron DeSantisDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Greg AbbottDecember 31, 202611%+809
Josh HawleyDecember 31, 202614%+612
Katie BrittDecember 31, 20261%+9424
Tucker CarlsonDecember 31, 202618%+471
Rand PaulDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Gavin NewsomDecember 31, 202614%+590
Wes MooreDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Andy BeshearDecember 31, 202614%+614
Raphael WarnockDecember 31, 202612%+770
Mark KellyDecember 31, 202617%+506
Roy CooperDecember 31, 20268%+1233
Barack ObamaDecember 31, 20264%+2369
Phil MurphyDecember 31, 20268%+1090
Chelsea ClintonDecember 31, 20261%+7592
Andrew YangDecember 31, 202613%+697
J.D. VanceDecember 31, 202614%+641
Donald Trump Jr.December 31, 20267%+1438
Sarah Huckabee SandersDecember 31, 202610%+953
Elise StefanikDecember 31, 20265%+1752
Matt GaetzDecember 31, 202611%+852
Mike PenceDecember 31, 20262%+5305
Tom BradyDecember 31, 20268%+1150
Marjorie Taylor GreeneDecember 31, 202614%+590
Pete ButtigiegDecember 31, 202618%+471
Kamala HarrisDecember 31, 202625%+308
Mark CubanDecember 31, 202613%+700
Tim WalzDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Gina RaimondoDecember 31, 20266%+1450
Jared PolisDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Liz CheneyDecember 31, 202613%+700
Hunter BidenDecember 31, 20267%+1393
Dwayne 'The Rock' JohnsonDecember 31, 20263%+3746
Kim KardashianDecember 31, 20265%+2122
Tulsi GabbardDecember 31, 20266%+1553
Nikki HaleyDecember 31, 20264%+2173
Brian KempDecember 31, 202610%+900
Ted CruzDecember 31, 202614%+641
John ThuneDecember 31, 20268%+1150
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.December 31, 20267%+1360
Steve BannonDecember 31, 202613%+700
Josh ShapiroDecember 31, 202610%+953
Gretchen WhitmerDecember 31, 20267%+1438
J.B. PritzkerDecember 31, 202614%+590
Michelle ObamaDecember 31, 20266%+1450
Zohran MamdaniDecember 31, 20264%+2253
Jon StewartDecember 31, 20263%+2799
Bernie SandersDecember 31, 20263%+3179
George ClooneyDecember 31, 20267%+1329
Oprah WinfreyDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Donald TrumpDecember 31, 202612%+730
Glenn YoungkinDecember 31, 20268%+1199
Vivek RamaswamyDecember 31, 20268%+1233
Byron DonaldsDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Elon MuskDecember 31, 20265%+2122
Kristi NoemDecember 31, 202610%+915
Ivanka TrumpDecember 31, 20267%+1427
Erika KirkDecember 31, 20267%+1289
Candace OwensDecember 31, 202615%+585
Don LemonDecember 31, 202614%+641
Candace OwensDecember 31, 2026——
Implied
14.5%
American
+590
Decimal
6.90
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 14% — roughly +590 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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