GeoOdds

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Odds

$1.0M total volume$4K 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
11%implied chance
-1.5pp24h

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezDecember 31, 20267%+1329
Stephen A. SmithDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Jon OssoffDecember 31, 20263%+2841
Cory BookerDecember 31, 20266%+1654
Rahm EmanuelDecember 31, 202610%+900
John FettermanDecember 31, 20261%+7043
Hillary ClintonDecember 31, 20263%+3674
LeBron JamesDecember 31, 20262%+6150
MrBeastDecember 31, 20262%+4155
Beto O’RourkeDecember 31, 20262%+4155
Marco RubioDecember 31, 20265%+1983
Ron DeSantisDecember 31, 20263%+3746
Greg AbbottDecember 31, 20264%+2603
Josh HawleyDecember 31, 20262%+4067
Katie BrittDecember 31, 20261%+8233
Tucker CarlsonDecember 31, 202614%+641
Rand PaulDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Gavin NewsomDecember 31, 202611%+809
Wes MooreDecember 31, 20263%+3126
Andy BeshearDecember 31, 202615%+567
Raphael WarnockDecember 31, 20268%+1233
Mark KellyDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Roy CooperDecember 31, 20261%+8596
Barack ObamaDecember 31, 20262%+5614
Phil MurphyDecember 31, 20262%+6352
Chelsea ClintonDecember 31, 20261%+8596
Andrew YangDecember 31, 2026<1%+16567
J.D. VanceDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Donald Trump Jr.December 31, 20265%+2122
Sarah Huckabee SandersDecember 31, 20261%+7307
Elise StefanikDecember 31, 20263%+3409
Matt GaetzDecember 31, 20268%+1233
Mike PenceDecember 31, 20262%+4344
Tom BradyDecember 31, 2026<1%+12400
Marjorie Taylor GreeneDecember 31, 20269%+1076
Pete ButtigiegDecember 31, 202610%+953
Kamala HarrisDecember 31, 202612%+770
Mark CubanDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Tim WalzDecember 31, 20262%+6352
Gina RaimondoDecember 31, 20264%+2532
Jared PolisDecember 31, 2026<1%+15285
Liz CheneyDecember 31, 20263%+3822
Hunter BidenDecember 31, 20264%+2717
Dwayne 'The Rock' JohnsonDecember 31, 20262%+4900
Kim KardashianDecember 31, 20262%+5163
Tulsi GabbardDecember 31, 20262%+5163
Nikki HaleyDecember 31, 20267%+1349
Brian KempDecember 31, 20267%+1329
Ted CruzDecember 31, 20269%+1030
John ThuneDecember 31, 20262%+4551
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.December 31, 20265%+2122
Steve BannonDecember 31, 20268%+1233
Josh ShapiroDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Gretchen WhitmerDecember 31, 20268%+1233
J.B. PritzkerDecember 31, 20266%+1567
Michelle ObamaDecember 31, 20261%+7043
Zohran MamdaniDecember 31, 20263%+3822
Jon StewartDecember 31, 20263%+2799
Bernie SandersDecember 31, 20261%+9424
George ClooneyDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Oprah WinfreyDecember 31, 2026<1%+22122
Donald TrumpDecember 31, 20266%+1513
Glenn YoungkinDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Vivek RamaswamyDecember 31, 20266%+1567
Byron DonaldsDecember 31, 20262%+5961
Elon MuskDecember 31, 20262%+4445
Kristi NoemDecember 31, 20264%+2369
Ivanka TrumpDecember 31, 20264%+2640
Erika KirkDecember 31, 20265%+2005
Candace OwensDecember 31, 20267%+1299
Don LemonDecember 31, 20269%+1024
Candace OwensDecember 31, 2026——
Implied
11%
American
+809
Decimal
9.09
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 11% — roughly +809 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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