Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Odds
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candace Owens | December 31, 2026 | — | — |
| Gavin Newsom | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +614 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1150 |
| Pete Buttigieg | January 1, 2027 | 27% | +272 |
| Josh Shapiro | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1962 |
| Wes Moore | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2930 |
| Stephen A. Smith | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +18082 |
| Kamala Harris | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1318 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2717 |
| Andy Beshear | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +876 |
| Jon Ossoff | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
| Mark Cuban | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +7043 |
| J.B. Pritzker | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| Raphael Warnock | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +953 |
| Cory Booker | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1349 |
| Tim Walz | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +7307 |
| Michelle Obama | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3604 |
| Mark Kelly | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +880 |
| Rahm Emanuel | January 1, 2027 | 19% | +429 |
| Gina Raimondo | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +981 |
| Zohran Mamdani | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2885 |
| Roy Cooper | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +6797 |
| John Fetterman | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2930 |
| Jared Polis | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3233 |
| Jon Stewart | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2028 |
| Barack Obama | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3536 |
| Hillary Clinton | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3179 |
| Liz Cheney | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3536 |
| Bernie Sanders | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4155 |
| Phil Murphy | January 1, 2027 | 12% | +766 |
| LeBron James | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4445 |
| Hunter Biden | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2199 |
| George Clooney | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
| Chelsea Clinton | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +8596 |
| MrBeast | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +5456 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4248 |
| Oprah Winfrey | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2717 |
| Andrew Yang | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2173 |
| Beto O’Rourke | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1462 |
| Kim Kardashian | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4662 |
| Donald Trump | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3126 |
| J.D. Vance | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1415 |
| Marco Rubio | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2253 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4778 |
| Glenn Youngkin | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1242 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2640 |
| Ron DeSantis | January 1, 2027 | 15% | +567 |
| Nikki Haley | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2005 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1900 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +7043 |
| Greg Abbott | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2173 |
| Brian Kemp | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Byron Donalds | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +33233 |
| Elise Stefanik | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2885 |
| Josh Hawley | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1702 |
| Ted Cruz | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Elon Musk | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2799 |
| Matt Gaetz | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2532 |
| Katie Britt | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4551 |
| John Thune | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2226 |
| Kristi Noem | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3025 |
| Mike Pence | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4551 |
| Tucker Carlson | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1983 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1639 |
| Ivanka Trump | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3025 |
| Tom Brady | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2339 |
| Rand Paul | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| Steve Bannon | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3348 |
| Erika Kirk | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
| Candace Owens | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3290 |
| Don Lemon | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1427 |
- Implied
- 14%
- American
- +614
- Decimal
- 7.14
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 14% — roughly +614 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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