Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? Odds
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Candace Owens | December 31, 2026 | — | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Stephen A. Smith | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Jon Ossoff | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3674 |
| Cory Booker | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1654 |
| Rahm Emanuel | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| John Fetterman | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4551 |
| Hillary Clinton | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +9900 |
| LeBron James | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3900 |
| MrBeast | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4344 |
| Beto O’Rourke | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2005 |
| Marco Rubio | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2930 |
| Ron DeSantis | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1242 |
| Greg Abbott | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1880 |
| Josh Hawley | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3746 |
| Katie Britt | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +7043 |
| Tucker Carlson | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +5961 |
| Rand Paul | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
| Gavin Newsom | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +669 |
| Wes Moore | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3025 |
| Andy Beshear | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Raphael Warnock | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Mark Kelly | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3471 |
| Roy Cooper | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +8233 |
| Barack Obama | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +5028 |
| Phil Murphy | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +5961 |
| Chelsea Clinton | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +9424 |
| Andrew Yang | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +18082 |
| J.D. Vance | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +19900 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1329 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | January 1, 2027 | <1% | +14186 |
| Elise Stefanik | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2640 |
| Matt Gaetz | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Mike Pence | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3075 |
| Tom Brady | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2930 |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Pete Buttigieg | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1393 |
| Kamala Harris | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1076 |
| Mark Cuban | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Tim Walz | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +6150 |
| Gina Raimondo | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2339 |
| Jared Polis | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +6352 |
| Liz Cheney | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3746 |
| Hunter Biden | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1450 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4662 |
| Kim Kardashian | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4778 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +5163 |
| Nikki Haley | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2400 |
| Brian Kemp | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Ted Cruz | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1216 |
| John Thune | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2717 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +2930 |
| Steve Bannon | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2497 |
| Josh Shapiro | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
| J.B. Pritzker | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| Michelle Obama | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2603 |
| Zohran Mamdani | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3290 |
| Jon Stewart | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1900 |
| Bernie Sanders | January 1, 2027 | 2% | +4445 |
| George Clooney | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
| Oprah Winfrey | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3409 |
| Donald Trump | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +1941 |
| Glenn Youngkin | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1056 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| Byron Donalds | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +8596 |
| Elon Musk | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +7592 |
| Kristi Noem | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2369 |
| Ivanka Trump | January 1, 2027 | 3% | +3348 |
| Erika Kirk | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2678 |
| Candace Owens | January 1, 2027 | 4% | +2310 |
| Don Lemon | January 1, 2027 | 9% | +1043 |
- Implied
- 13%
- American
- +669
- Decimal
- 7.69
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 13% — roughly +669 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.