GeoOdds

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Odds

$1.4M total volume$572 24hResolves by December 31, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
25%implied chance
-0.5pp24h

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Susie WilesDecember 31, 202624%+326
Dan ScavinoDecember 31, 202629%+240
David SacksDecember 31, 202621%+377
Russell VoughtDecember 31, 202638%+167
Tom HomanDecember 31, 202627%+270
John RatcliffeDecember 31, 202614%+590
Stephen MillerDecember 31, 20268%+1150
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.December 31, 202628%+251
Pete HegsethDecember 31, 202626%+292
Scott BessentDecember 31, 202611%+809
Howard LutnickDecember 31, 202630%+239
Kash PatelDecember 31, 202625%+308
Marco RubioDecember 31, 20267%+1438
Lee ZeldinDecember 31, 202616%+525
Kristi NoemDecember 31, 202622%+355
Markwayne MullinDecember 31, 202616%+525
Implied
24.5%
American
+308
Decimal
4.08
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 25% — roughly +308 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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