Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Odds
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markwayne Mullin | January 1, 2027 | 36% | +182 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +641 |
| Pete Hegseth | January 1, 2027 | 21% | +376 |
| Marco Rubio | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
| Scott Bessent | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1567 |
| Lee Zeldin | January 1, 2027 | 18% | +456 |
| Howard Lutnick | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +590 |
| Kash Patel | January 1, 2027 | 19% | +441 |
| Stephen Miller | January 1, 2027 | 12% | +733 |
| Susie Wiles | January 1, 2027 | 17% | +488 |
| Dan Scavino | January 1, 2027 | 30% | +238 |
| David Sacks | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +691 |
| Russell Vought | January 1, 2027 | 16% | +525 |
| Tom Homan | January 1, 2027 | 27% | +277 |
| John Ratcliffe | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +953 |
| Kristi Noem | January 1, 2027 | 32% | +211 |
- Implied
- 18.5%
- American
- +441
- Decimal
- 5.41
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 19% — roughly +441 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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