Will Trump be impeached by...? Odds
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | January 1, 2027 | 1% | +9424 |
| June 30, 2027 | July 1, 2027 | 35% | +190 |
| December 31, 2027 | January 1, 2028 | 51% | -104 |
- Implied
- 1.1%
- American
- +9424
- Decimal
- 95.24
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Trump be impeached by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 1% — roughly +9424 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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