What moved in world markets — August 12, 2026

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner moved -84.0pp in the last 24 hours to 10% on $1.5M of volume.

Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary was held August 11. Madison state Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who had led the polls for months and whose nomination the market treated as all but settled, ended the night in a dead heat with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, each drawing roughly 40% of more than 700,000 votes with the race too close to call. Crowley's rise was a stunning turnaround given the final Marquette Law School poll put him at 7% to Hong's 38%. With no winner declared and the two separated by less than a point, the market swung hard away from Hong's presumed lock, cutting her odds to about 10%. The eventual nominee faces Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November.

$1.5M traded in 24h · live odds →

South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner moved +38.4pp in the last 24 hours to 99% on $291.3K of volume.

The August 11 special Republican primary to fill the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham's death in July went to a runoff. Darline Graham, the late senator's sister who was appointed interim senator after his death, finished first with about 32.7% of the vote. Ralph Norman took second at 24.6%, narrowly edging Russell Fry at 19.6% for the other runoff spot, with Mark Sanford at 14.9%. Because Graham clearly topped the first round, the market for who led the first round resolved toward her at 99%.

$291K traded in 24h · live odds →

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner moved +33.3pp in the last 24 hours to 74% on $447.6K of volume.

With Darline Graham leading the August 11 first round and carrying President Trump's endorsement, the market now makes her the favorite to win the nomination outright, pricing her near 74% ahead of the August 25 runoff against Ralph Norman. No candidate cleared 50% on the night, so the seat will be settled in that head-to-head; Norman claimed the second runoff spot by edging Russell Fry by a few points.

$448K traded in 24h · live odds →

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner moved -29.9pp in the last 24 hours to 0% on $145.4K of volume.

Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary was held August 11, and House Speaker Lisa Demuth won with roughly 44%, defeating Trump-endorsed MyPillow founder Mike Lindell at about 32% and state-party-endorsed Kendall Qualls. Both the president's pick and the party's pick fell short. The tracked market outcome, which had been priced near 30% and lines up with Lindell's Trump-backed bid, collapsed to essentially zero once Demuth clinched, accounting for the roughly 30-point drop. Demuth becomes the first Black major-party nominee for Minnesota governor.

$145K traded in 24h · live odds →

Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner moved +26.5pp in the last 24 hours to 100% on $120.4K of volume.

Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary was held August 11, and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan won, with Representative Angie Craig conceding and pledging her full support. Flanagan, a progressive, will be the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring Senator Tina Smith. Once Craig conceded the outcome was no longer in doubt, and the market moved to 100%.

$120K traded in 24h · live odds →