GeoOdds

Daily briefing · August 14, 2026

What moved in world markets — August 14, 2026

Two weeks out from South Carolina's August 25 Republican Senate runoff, the market has firmed decisively behind appointed Senator Darline Graham as the party establishment consolidates around her over Representative Ralph Norman.

  1. 01

    Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

    7%-16.5pp24h

    Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory moved -16.5pp in the last 24 hours to 7% on $81.3K of volume.

    $81K traded in 24h · live odds →

  2. 02

    Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

    5%-12.5pp24h

    Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % moved -12.5pp in the last 24 hours to 5% on $1.3M of volume.

    $1.3M traded in 24h · live odds →

  3. 03

    Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

    <1%-7.3pp24h

    Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote % moved -7.3pp in the last 24 hours to 0% on $127.1K of volume.

    $127K traded in 24h · live odds →

  4. 04

    Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

    62%+6.3pp24h

    Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? moved +6.3pp in the last 24 hours to 62% on $65.8K of volume.

    $66K traded in 24h · live odds →

  5. 05

    South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

    83%+6.2pp24h

    South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner moved +6.2pp in the last 24 hours to 83% on $38.3K of volume.

    Darline Graham, the late Senator Lindsey Graham's sister and appointed successor, topped the August 11 special primary with about 33% and now faces Representative Ralph Norman (24%) in the August 25 runoff, with Russell Fry (20%) and former Governor Mark Sanford (15%) eliminated. Since the primary, endorsements have piled up behind Graham, who already carries President Trump's backing: Senator Tim Scott endorsed her on August 12 and Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette followed on August 13, alongside Senators John Thune and Tom Cotton. Norman drew counter-endorsements from Nikki Haley, Jim DeMint and Representative Nancy Mace, but the market read the establishment consolidation as decisive, moving the contract for Graham to win the nomination up about 12 points over 24 hours to roughly 92% on more than $120,000 of trading. The runoff winner is favored in the November special election against Democrat Annie Andrews in a state rated Likely Republican.

    $38K traded in 24h · live odds →

Sources

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