What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Odds
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | January 1, 2027 | 18% | +456 |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +669 |
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | January 1, 2027 | 13% | +700 |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | January 1, 2027 | 17% | +488 |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | January 1, 2027 | 14% | +641 |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | January 1, 2027 | 6% | +1718 |
- Implied
- 17%
- American
- +488
- Decimal
- 5.88
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
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Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 17% — roughly +488 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
Rules
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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