What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Odds
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | January 1, 2027 | 8% | +1233 |
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | January 1, 2027 | 11% | +852 |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | January 1, 2027 | 7% | +1438 |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | January 1, 2027 | 10% | +953 |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | January 1, 2027 | 5% | +2122 |
- Implied
- 7.5%
- American
- +1233
- Decimal
- 13.33
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
Rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 8% — roughly +1233 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
Rules
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?Geopolitics
- Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?Geopolitics
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?Geopolitics
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Geopolitics
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Geopolitics
- Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?Election
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.