Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Odds
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +1983 |
| Marco Rubio | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1076 |
| J.D. Vance | December 31, 2026 | 19% | +441 |
| Pete Hegseth | December 31, 2026 | 5% | +2122 |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | December 31, 2026 | 22% | +355 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | December 31, 2026 | 2% | +4662 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | December 31, 2026 | 13% | +700 |
| Majid Takht-Ravanchi | December 31, 2026 | 27% | +270 |
| Kazem Gharibabadi | December 31, 2026 | 35% | +190 |
| Ahmad Vahidi | December 31, 2026 | 4% | +2226 |
| Esmail Qaani | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3290 |
| Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | December 31, 2026 | 14% | +590 |
| Ishaq Dar | December 31, 2026 | 19% | +426 |
| Rafael Grossi | December 31, 2026 | 16% | +545 |
| Nick Stewart | December 31, 2026 | 22% | +365 |
| Mohammed bin Salman | December 31, 2026 | 2% | +4445 |
| Jared Kushner | December 31, 2026 | 43% | +133 |
| Steve Witkoff | December 31, 2026 | 43% | +133 |
| Abbas Araghchi | December 31, 2026 | 42% | +138 |
| Palmer Luckey | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +3674 |
| Newt Gingrich | December 31, 2026 | 3% | +2930 |
| Elon Musk | December 31, 2026 | 2% | +3982 |
| Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | December 31, 2026 | 37% | +170 |
- Implied
- 22%
- American
- +355
- Decimal
- 4.55
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 22% — roughly +355 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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