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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Odds

$2.2M total volume$6K 24hResolves by January 1, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
26%implied chance
-11.5pp24h

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
Donald TrumpDecember 31, 20266%+1718
Marco RubioDecember 31, 202611%+809
J.D. VanceDecember 31, 202619%+441
Pete HegsethDecember 31, 20264%+2757
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafDecember 31, 202628%+264
Mojtaba KhameneiDecember 31, 20262%+4662
Masoud PezeshkianDecember 31, 20267%+1438
Majid Takht-RavanchiDecember 31, 202629%+245
Kazem GharibabadiDecember 31, 202626%+292
Ahmad VahidiDecember 31, 20263%+3025
Esmail QaaniDecember 31, 20263%+3471
Badr bin Hamad Al BusaidiDecember 31, 202614%+590
Ishaq DarDecember 31, 202616%+545
Rafael GrossiDecember 31, 202625%+308
Nick StewartDecember 31, 202621%+376
Mohammed bin SalmanDecember 31, 20262%+5456
Jared KushnerDecember 31, 202627%+270
Steve WitkoffDecember 31, 202626%+292
Abbas AraghchiDecember 31, 202630%+239
Palmer LuckeyDecember 31, 20262%+4778
Newt GingrichDecember 31, 202611%+817
Elon MuskDecember 31, 20262%+4900
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al ThaniDecember 31, 202631%+228
Melania TrumpJanuary 1, 20272%+5782
Mohsen RezaeiJanuary 1, 202714%+614
Implied
25.5%
American
+292
Decimal
3.92
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 26% — roughly +292 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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