Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Odds
Lula
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Lula71%
- 2Candidate A50%
- 3Candidate B50%
- 4Candidate C50%
- 5Candidate D50%
- 6Candidate E50%
- ·Others (34 outcomes)>99%
- Implied
- 70.5%
- American
- -239
- Decimal
- 1.42
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 71% — roughly -239 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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