GeoOdds

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place Odds

$78K total volume$64 24hResolves by November 8, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
98%implied chance
-0.2pp24h

Green Party

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Green Party98%
  2. 2
    ACT New Zealand<1%
  3. 3
    New Zealand First Party<1%
  4. 4
    National Party<1%
  5. 5
    Labour Party<1%
  6. 6
    Te Pāti Māori<1%
  7. ·
    Others (27 outcomes)<1%
Implied
98.3%
American
-5782
Decimal
1.02
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of New Zealand Election: 3rd Place?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 98% — roughly -5782 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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