Next Israeli government formed by...? Odds
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
last 24h
Probability over time
Odds by deadline
| Outcome | Resolves by | Probability | American |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 28, 2027 | March 1, 2027 | 52% | -106 |
| November 30, 2026 | July 1, 2027 | 8% | +1150 |
| December 31, 2026 | July 1, 2027 | 28% | +257 |
| June 30, 2027 | July 1, 2027 | 76% | -308 |
- Implied
- 8%
- American
- +1150
- Decimal
- 12.50
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of Next Israeli government formed by...?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 8% — roughly +1150 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
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