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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Odds

$521K total volume$710 24hResolves by October 4, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
64%implied chance
-0.5pp24h

Renan Santos

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Renan Santos64%
  2. 2
    Ronaldo Caiado27%
  3. 3
    Romeu Zema5%
  4. 4
    Flávio Bolsonaro3%
  5. 5
    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva<1%
  6. 6
    Tarcisio de Freitas<1%
  7. ·
    Others (26 outcomes)1%
Implied
63.5%
American
-174
Decimal
1.57
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 64% — roughly -174 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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