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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? Odds

$339K total volume$8K 24hResolves by April 19, 2027Polymarket, 10-min refresh
15%implied chance
+0.2pp24h

Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

last 24h

Probability over time

Odds by deadline

OutcomeResolves byProbabilityAmerican
OtherApril 18, 202733%+208
Marine Le PenApril 19, 202789%-809
Jordan BardellaApril 19, 20275%+1900
Éric ZemmourApril 19, 20274%+2147
Édouard PhilippeApril 19, 202750%+102
David LisnardApril 19, 202715%+564
Xavier BertrandApril 19, 20271%+8596
Laurent WauquiezApril 19, 20272%+4067
François RuffinApril 19, 20276%+1553
Gabriel AttalApril 19, 20276%+1639
Bruno RetailleauApril 19, 20277%+1427
François HollandeApril 19, 20276%+1624
Raphaël GlucksmannApril 19, 20276%+1624
Jean-Luc MélenchonApril 19, 202740%+150
Marine TondelierApril 19, 20275%+1805
Fabien RousselApril 19, 20274%+2432
Olivier FaureApril 19, 20274%+2432
Dominique de VillepinApril 19, 20276%+1718
Ségolène RoyalApril 19, 20273%+2799
François AsselineauApril 19, 20274%+2757
Clémentine AutainApril 19, 20275%+2028
Nicolas Dupont-AignanApril 19, 20274%+2432
Michel BarnierApril 19, 20274%+2432
Valérie PécresseApril 19, 20273%+3900
François BayrouApril 19, 20273%+2977
Élisabeth BorneApril 19, 20275%+2098
Yaël Braun-PivetApril 19, 20274%+2281
Jean CastexApril 19, 20272%+4445
Gérald DarmaninApril 19, 20275%+1941
Carole DelgaApril 19, 20274%+2678
Bernard CazeneuveApril 19, 20274%+2640
Manuel BompardApril 19, 20275%+2005
Mathilde PanotApril 19, 20272%+5961
Sarah KnafoApril 19, 20274%+2147
Juan BrancoApril 19, 20275%+2098
Clémence GuettéApril 19, 20273%+3075
Sébastien LecornuApril 19, 20274%+2432
Implied
15.1%
American
+564
Decimal
6.64
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 15% — roughly +564 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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