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São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place Odds

$124K total volume$7K 24hResolves by October 5, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
68%implied chance
-3.5pp24h

Guilherme Derrite

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Guilherme Derrite68%
  2. 2
    Candidate A50%
  3. 3
    Candidate B50%
  4. 4
    Candidate C50%
  5. 5
    Candidate D50%
  6. 6
    Candidate E50%
  7. ·
    Others (35 outcomes)>99%
Implied
67.5%
American
-208
Decimal
1.48
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 68% — roughly -208 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won.

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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