São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place Odds
Guilherme Derrite
last 24h
Probability over time
Current standings
- 1Guilherme Derrite68%
- 2Candidate A50%
- 3Candidate B50%
- 4Candidate C50%
- 5Candidate D50%
- 6Candidate E50%
- ·Others (35 outcomes)>99%
- Implied
- 67.5%
- American
- -208
- Decimal
- 1.48
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place?
Polymarket traders currently price this at 68% — roughly -208 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.
What does this market resolve on?
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won.
Where do these odds come from?
These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.
Related markets
- Federal District Senate Election: 2nd PlaceElection
- US x China Military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
- Taipei Mayor Election WinnerGeopolitics
- Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Geopolitics
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceGeopolitics
- Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd PlaceGeopolitics
New to prediction markets?
New traders get a $20 bonus
Deposit $10 on Polymarket and get a $20 trading bonus to put behind your first call.
Trade this on Polymarket →New Polymarket users only. Bonus is trading credit, expires 30 days after it lands, and terms are set by Polymarket — check the current offer at signup. 18+. Fee-free markets. GeoOdds earns a commission on signups through this link.