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Brazil Presidential Election Odds

$147.0M total volume$1.2M 24hResolves by October 4, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
52%implied chance
+6.3pp24h

Flávio Bolsonaro

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Flávio Bolsonaro52%
  2. 2
    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva45%
  3. 3
    Renan Santos2%
  4. 4
    Augusto Cury<1%
  5. 5
    Ronaldo Caiado<1%
  6. 6
    Jair Bolsonaro<1%
  7. ·
    Others (26 outcomes)<1%
Implied
52.2%
American
-109
Decimal
1.92
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 52% — roughly -109 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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