GeoOdds

Brazil Presidential Election Odds

$116.0M total volume$105K 24hResolves by October 4, 2026Polymarket, 10-min refresh
63%implied chance
0.0pp24h

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

last 24h

Probability over time

Current standings

  1. 1
    Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%
  2. 2
    Flávio Bolsonaro24%
  3. 3
    Renan Santos9%
  4. 4
    Ronaldo Caiado2%
  5. 5
    Jair Bolsonaro1%
  6. 6
    Romeu Zema<1%
  7. ·
    Others (26 outcomes)2%
Implied
62.5%
American
-167
Decimal
1.60
Resolution criteriasource: Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election?

Polymarket traders currently price this at 63% — roughly -167 in American odds. Prices update continuously as real money trades; this page refreshes every 10 minutes.

What does this market resolve on?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Where do these odds come from?

These odds are live order-book prices from Polymarket, a regulated real-money prediction market. Prices reflect what traders are actually paying for outcome shares right now — not polls or pundit forecasts. We read them from Polymarket's public API and refresh every 10 minutes.

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