Analysis

Deep dives on the markets behind the headlines — where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree, what the resolution criteria actually say, and why a probability moved when it did. Prices in these pieces are frozen snapshots; the live numbers always live on the market pages.

• 19 October 2026

  World Leader Out Odds 2026: The Caretaker Clause

  Polymarket’s 21-name ladder pays 50.5¢ on nobody leaving office before 2027 — its own single-name boards multiply out to 83.4%. The 34-point gap is a caretaker clause, and Kim Jong Un’s rung went up 22-fold in a day.

• 16 October 2026

  Ukraine Ceasefire Odds 2026: The 10-Day Clause

  Polymarket runs two ceasefire ladders and prices 31 December at 13.5¢ and 9.5¢ — the gap is a 29.6% chance any 2026 deal breaks inside ten days. Kalshi lists no ceasefire at all, and the peace-talks board has shed 32 points in six days.

• 12 October 2026

  2026 House Odds: Markets 90¢, Models 76-93%

  Polymarket pays 90.5¢ on a Democratic House and Kalshi 89.5¢, while Decision Desk HQ reads 76% and the Silver Bulletin 93.1% — on seat projections under four seats apart. Two conditional boards opened yesterday price an Iran deal as worth 7-9 points against the Democrats in the Senate.

• 9 October 2026

  California Governor Odds 2026: Becerra 96¢, 43 Dead Rungs

  Polymarket says 95.95¢ and Kalshi 96.30¢ — but 87% of the $41.74m traded sits on candidates who lost in June, 97% of the posted liquidity is quoted against them, and 22 rungs have never had a price.

• 5 October 2026

  Iran Nuclear Deal Odds 2026: From 62¢ to 13¢

  Kalshi's year-end rung closed at 62¢ on the day the memorandum was announced and 13¢ on 5 October. Kalshi pays on a deal Polymarket's rules refuse, 35 expired deadlines have all resolved No, and the uranium trades below the deal.

• 2 October 2026

  2028 Presidential Election Odds: Two Different Favourites

  Polymarket's favourite for the Democratic nomination is Ocasio-Cortez at 17.75¢; Kalshi's is Ossoff at 16¢. The rulebooks match this time, the 64.5¢ party price is the thinnest board of the six, and one Republican rung has never traded.

• 28 September 2026

  Netanyahu Out Odds 2026: Three Markets, Three Prices

  Polymarket says 39.5¢, Kalshi says 41¢ and Polymarket's own basket says 34.5¢ — on the same man and the same date. Every point of the spread is a clause about caretaker prime ministers.

• 27 September 2026

  Will the US Invade Iran in 2026? The Odds, and Kharg

  Polymarket prices an invasion at 15.5¢ and Kharg Island actually changing hands at 5.5¢ — because one contract pays on an offensive being started and the other explicitly refuses to. Kalshi lists neither.

• 25 September 2026

  Greenland Odds 2026: Three Contracts, Wrong Order

  A signed US-Denmark-Greenland deal took the acquire-any-part contract from 3.95¢ to 7.50¢ and then to 2.20¢ — below Polymarket's own narrower sovereignty market for the first time. Kalshi barely moved, because its rules already excluded a base lease.

• 24 September 2026

  Iran Regime Change Odds 2026: Two Markets, Two Answers

  Polymarket prices the Islamic Republic falling at 6.5¢ and Mojtaba Khamenei losing power at 14.5¢ by the same date. The eight points between them are a succession the system survives — and Kalshi lists neither contract.

• 21 September 2026

  Will China Invade Taiwan? The Odds, and What They Cover

  Polymarket prices an invasion at 4.05¢ by end-2026 and 11.5¢ by end-2027 — but the rules count any inhabited island, the curve prices this quarter at 1.8x the 2027 rate, and Kalshi lists no contract at all.

• 20 September 2026

  Nobel Peace Prize Odds 2026: There Is No Favourite

  Nothing trades above 15¢ on either exchange, Polymarket's book sums to 68.55¢ against Kalshi's 112.80¢, and the two only agree on 12 of 43 names. Why the field is the story.

• 18 September 2026

  2026 Midterms Odds: The Senate Flipped in 30 Days

  Polymarket's implied Democratic Senate price went from 47.75¢ to 60.75¢ in a month, and Kalshi agrees to within 1.25 points. The seat ladders confirm both.

• 17 September 2026

  Polymarket vs Kalshi: French Election Odds 2027

  Both exchanges give Marine Le Pen the runoff and split five points on whether she wins it. The disagreement is one number — and only one of the two books is still trading.

• 14 September 2026

  Russia Election Odds 2026: One Word Splits the Market

  Polymarket prices United Russia at 99¢ to win the most Duma seats and 78.5¢ to gain the most. One verb in the rules is worth 20 points — and $27.8m sits on the ambiguous side.

• 13 September 2026

  Brazil Election Odds 2026: The Favourite Just Flipped

  Polymarket handed Flávio Bolsonaro the lead on 10 September — and still gives Lula 77% to top the first round. Why those two prices are not a contradiction.

• 11 September 2026

  Israel Election Odds 2026: Who Replaces Netanyahu?

  Markets moved Yashar up 17 points and Likud down 13 in a month — and barely touched the premiership. Why 61 seats, not first place, decides this.

• 7 September 2026

  Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds 2026: What Markets Say

  Polymarket gives a 2026 reopening 24.5¢ — but 58.45¢ that Washington calls off the blockade by the same date. Why the ships lag the press release.

• 4 September 2026

  Polymarket vs Kalshi: Venezuela Leader Odds 2026

  Both exchanges make a man in a Brooklyn jail the favourite to lead Venezuela — and Kalshi's second market prices the exact opposite. Every line compared.